Wintergreen Resort

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Wintergreen, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will remain offshore this afternoon. A cold front will approach Saturday before stalling overhead Saturday night into Sunday. The boundary will weaken Monday, but another cold front will approach from the north and most likely stall out nearby for the middle portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for areas along and east of I-81 until 7 PM. Cape of 1500 to 2000 j/kg along with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to isolated to scattered pulse severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. There is a potential strong storms to produce heavy rainfall which may lead to isolated instances of flooding.

.Update for SVR Watch^^^^

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are moving east- northeast across eastern West Virginia, central and northeastern Maryland. The main threats are heavy rain and damaging winds. Embedded thunderstorms are also developing from western Maryland southward into Highland County in western Virginia. These thunderstorms will likely continue to move eastward, while intensifying since CAPE and MLCAPE are in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range and there is some shear of 15 to 20 knots. Other showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along and east of the Blue Ridge and move toward the Chesapeake Bay late this afternoon and evening. High temperatures continue to climb into the lower to middle 90s where sunshine remains and a humid southerly flow continues. Places that are being overcome by cloud cover or one of these intense thunderstorms have been knocked down a couple of degrees temporarily into the middle to upper 80s. Heat indices will level off in the middle to upper 90s west of The Blue Ridge to around 100 degrees east of the Blue Ridge. This is just below heat advisory criteria, but either way it will be hot and humid.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in intensity and coverage tonight. There will still be widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around that could produce brief downpours. Lows tonight will bottom out in the 60s and 70s. Patchy fog is possible, but some high and mid- level clouds should prevent widespread fog from developing.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday, a cold front will approach the region from the northwest. The front will most likely remain to our north and west during the day, allowing for scattered to widespread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across most of the region. Hot and humid conditions will once again lead to moderate instability. Heights will continue to fall and forcing along the front will be stronger. Shear will be stronger as well. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and some storms may be severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.

Multiple rounds of convection could produce heavy rainfall along with hail and damaging winds. Flash flooding is possible due to these multiple rounds and possible training of activity. The strongest storms are most likely to be in the afternoon and evening near and east of the 81 corridor.

Convection will most likely dissipate and spread out in area Saturday night into early Sunday, but a few showers are still possible as the cold front drops through our area.

The cold front will most likely stall out over central and southern Virginia into southern Maryland. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions are most likely behind the boundary for Sunday. Will continue to introduce the possibility for showers in the forecast. Much of Sunday may turn out dry for most areas.

Sunday night should turn out dry for most areas (still may be a couple showers in central Virginia/southern MD, closer to the cold front).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended is looking fairly unsettled with several frontal boundaries moving into the area and stalling throughout the period. The cold front from the weekend is expected to stall just to the south of the area on Monday, leaving room for high pressure to briefly build in between it and an approaching cold front from the north. Fortunately for the holiday, this high pressure should yield the driest conditions of the week.

The southern stalled front looks to meander north while the northern one stalls on Tuesday, before advancing south to catch the southern front on Wednesday. By Thursday this boundary pushes through the area only to stall once again to the south with yet another front approaching from the north.

With typical instability this time of year, showers and thunderstorms can be expected in the afternoon each day, with the lowest chance being on Monday thanks to high pressure. Some showers and thunderstorm are still possible but should be focused along where the boundary sets up.

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