|Dew Point:||27.0°F (-2.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the North at 8.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||20°F (-7°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.90" (910.8 mb)|
SleetHigh: 32 Low: 31
SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 30
SunnyHigh: 46 Low: 31
Partly SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 34
Mostly SunnyHigh: 44 Low: 27
Sleet and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. New ice accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Sleet and freezing rain before 7pm, then sleet and freezing rain and rain between 7pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow and a slight chance of sleet and a slight chance of freezing rain between 1am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind 12 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Sunny, with a high near 41. West wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. West wind 12 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
... Low pressure along the southeast coast this morning will move north towards Long Island by tonight. High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley over the weekend. A cold front will likely approach from the Great Lakes early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis depicts low pressure is strengthening near Myrtle Beach, moving northeast. To the north, high pressure is centered over northern New York. Aloft, a closed low is centered over the mid- Mississippi Valley, heading east- northeast. The 12Z IAD sounding showed a profile that was completely near or below freezing, which combined with intense precipitation rate, led to a quick 1-2 inches of snow across the metro areas. Dual pol radar data indicate transitions to other precipitation types are moving north across the area. Will have to monitor this northern progression, because recent NARRE runs indicate a high chance of snow along the PA border until well into the afternoon. If this happens, a few additional counties may need to be upgraded to a warning. Based on the temperature profile, elevations above 1500 feet may be prone to significant icing. The existing warnings largely cover these areas, but impacts (especially to trees) will likely be greater on the ridges.
For the rest of today, the low will continue to strengthen as it heads north- northeast along the coast, reaching the Virginia capes this evening and Long Island by late tonight. Cold air damming thanks to the high to our north will help keep regions west of the Blue Ridge below freezing all day, with these areas also holding the colder air aloft longer. Thus, winter storm warnings remain in effect for these regions with the highest accumulations of snow and ice expected. East of the Blue Ridge, snow and ice accumulations will be lower. As the low gets closer later today, the warm air aloft will gradually win out, with mainly ice or rain expected later in the day. Surface warming is also expected, but at a slower pace. The I-95 corridor from DC south remains mostly above freezing and is changing over to rain, but closer to the Blue Ridge the change may be delayed til evening, and west of the Blue Ridge it may never happen. Where precip does become all rain, heavier rain is possible with precip amounts of 1-2 inches likely, so given much diminished vegetation and already saturated conditions, a flood watch has been issued.
The whole system rapidly pushes northeast and precip starts tapering off this evening. Some wraparound moisture may bring a last burst of rain overnight, which could even change back to snow as temperatures aloft cool while the surface low heads northeast of us and winds shift to the northwest. However, do not anticipated significant accumulations with this band near I-95.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure pushes quickly northeast away from us on Friday, with weak high pressure dominating late Friday through Saturday night. Drying and warming will the the predominate theme, with highs rebounding back towards 50 and lows near freezing. Some high elevation freezing drizzle can't be ruled out Friday night thanks to a bit of low level moisture being lifted on the ridges, but otherwise, do not expect any significant precip.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Sunday, a vigorous piece of upper level shortwave energy will be moving across the area, bringing cloudier conditions on Sunday. This system could also bring some showers, primarily west of the Blue Ridge due to upslope flow. With temperatures dipping into the low 30s Sunday night into early Monday morning, some snow showers could mix in as well, again in the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures on Sunday will remain below average, only reaching the mid to upper 40s. Showers could linger into Monday, west of the Blue Ridge in areas prone to northwest flow. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Monday, but still below average.
On Tuesday, expecting high pressure to return to the region, bringing dry weather to the entire region. This will be a very cold high pressure though, with continued below average temperatures across the entire area. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s.