|Dew Point:||32.0°F (0.0°C)|
|Wind:||From the East at 6.0 MPH Gusting to 20.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||32°F (-0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.40" (893.9 mb)|
Mostly CloudyLow: 34
Partly Sunny then Isolated Rain And Snow ShowersHigh: 39 Low: 25
SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 30
SunnyHigh: 52 Low: 41
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 52 Low: 26
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then isolated rain and snow showers. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Isolated rain and snow showers before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Northwest wind around 28 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph.
Clear, with a low around 30. West wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 52.
A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain showers likely before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
... Low pressure will intensify as it moves toward the Canadian Maritimes through tonight. High pressure will return for the weekend. The next low pressure system will pass near the area on Monday, then Canadian high pressure will build in for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The headline for the day will focus on potential for strong wind gusts, though the set-up is somewhat complicated.
Deepening low pressure is approaching Long Island early this morning, with its associated rainfall exiting northeast Maryland by 8 AM or so. Gusty winds will continue since the pressure gradient will remain tight, but there might be a relative lull during the morning hours. The sun will likely make an appearance at times, with temperatures pushing into the upper 40s and 50s.
During the afternoon and evening, a shortwave trough and associated strong vort max and surface cold front will dive into the area. This feature will have good lift, and low and mid level lapse rates will be steep. A few hundred J/kg of instability seem likely, which will result in some low top convection developing. Upped PoPs to likely across much of the area since coverage looks decent per CAMs, though rain at any one location will likely be fairly brief. Given the low freezing levels and steep lapse rates, some small hail and gusty winds will be possible. Have included isolated thunder in the forecasts, though lightning strikes may be few and far between. This activity will exit, but a pressure surge and cold advection behind the front will result in strong gradient winds continuing through the evening. There is some uncertainty on how efficient mixing will be, but 40 kt winds will be located about 1500 ft off the surface.
For the moment, have issued a Wind Advisory for areas where there is higher confidence of strong wind gusts: the higher elevations and adjacent portions of the far northwest Baltimore/Washington suburbs. Winds during the afternoon might be more sporadic and tied to convection, while evening winds may be sporadic due to mixing issues...but the threat for 45+ mph gusts seems likely. Have areas east of the Blue Ridge ending at midnight, and 4 AM in higher elevations...when stability is expected to start increasing. Will allow day shift to determine if the threat extends farther east.
The other story will be upslope snow showers and squalls...which could be intense at times above 3000 ft or so. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for the period of most intense snows, although some scattered snow showers may persist well into tonight.
Skies clear east of the Allegheny Front tonight with lows dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Breezy conditions will continue Saturday as the trough axis exits, but gusts should remain in the 25-40 mph range. Surface high builds overhead Saturday night and then pushes to the east Sunday. Seasonably cool temperatures Saturday will rebound back to near or above normal Sunday as return flow begins.
Shortwave trough and surface low will be moving into the Ohio Valley Sunday night. Some light showers may move into the area ahead of this feature. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A surface front will push southeastward towards the area early Monday, likely crossing the area during the day. As it does so, a wave of low pressure will be moving along the front. Thus, a period of rain is expected on Monday. Temperatures will initially be mild ahead of the front, although highs will be determined by timing of the frontal passage. Will show a blended solution of 50s to around 60F for now. Temperatures will fall post-frontal, and it remains possible that the rain will end as some snowflakes, especially across the higher terrain.
Much cooler air will follow behind the front for the Monday night through Wednesday night time period as strong high pressure builds across the region. Temperatures likely average about 10 degrees or so below normal, with clear skies and radiational cooling at night and sunshine during the day. Lows likely to be in the 20s/30s with highs in the 40s to low 50s. The coolest day will be Tuesday with the coldest night likely Tuesday night.
Dry weather will continue into Thursday, but with milder conditions expected on developing southerly flow as the high slides to the coastline. Highs Thursday likely get back to near 60F.