|Dew Point:||29.0°F (-1.7°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSE at 17.5 MPH Gusting to 23.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.89" (876.6 mb)|
Hi 55 °F⇓
Hi 39 °F
Hi 47 °F
Hi 58 °F
Hi 59 °F
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then a slight chance of showers between 3pm and 4pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 42 by 5pm. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 29 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Windy, with a west wind 27 to 32 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Increasing clouds, with a low around 31. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. South wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sat Feb 25 2017
SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will return to the area Sunday through early next week. A warm front will then lift north into the area Tuesday into Wednesday followed by another cold front Wednesday night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weather story for today: Severe storms possible, especially east of the Blue Ridge, while cold front brings sharp weather changes.
A cold front is crossing the Ohio Valley this morning, trailing low pressure over Lake Huron. With southerly winds established locally, temperatures are very warm for this time of year, in the 50s and even 60s. Low clouds and fog have failed to form as aggressively as models suggested, although there has been a recent trend downward from Baltimore to Westminster. Wouldn`t think this would have an impact on sensible weather, but if thicker cloud cover can develop, it could affect temperatures and destabilization later today.
At this time, most lightning strikes are south of the Ohio River, so would expect the weakening band of showers to continue to progress toward the mountains by daybreak. The cold front will march eastward across the area through the day. Ahead of it, temperatures have a good shot of topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s on breezy south winds. While the showers may break apart somewhat, am expecting a reinvigorated line to form east of I-81 around the midday hours, as the strong low level forcing encounters increasing instability (possibly around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE near the I-95 corridor). Parameters such as updraft velocity/helicity and max lightning suggest the strongest storms will be east of US-15 after 2 PM. Strong unidirectional deep layer shear will support some bowing segments, and instability should be sufficient to bring down higher winds aloft. SPC has thus highlighted the eastern portion of the area in a Slight Risk. While strong to damaging winds will be the main threat, mid-level lapse rates are fairly steep, so the strongest updrafts could also contain some hail. Brief locally heavy rain will also be possible, but no problems are expected due to fast movement and dry conditions. The line of storms will push east of the Bay between 5-8 PM.
Temperatures will fall quickly as the front passes, and westerly winds will increase with gusts of 30-40 mph possible. The best surge of winds may come during the early evening. Lows will ultimately bottom out in the 30s, with some 20s west of the Blue Ridge. A period of upslope snow showers could produce localized amounts up to an inch west of the Allegheny Front.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure moves in from the west Sunday, allowing winds to gradually relax. Highs will be much cooler but closer to normal in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Lows will fall back to the upper 20s and 30s Sunday night as the high begins to move east.
While no well defined system is expected for Monday into Monday night, there will be increased isentropic lift, and an inverted trough may develop along the Carolina coast to SE VA. Will have gradually increasing chances of showers through the period, highest S/E of DC Monday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back up as well.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Another system will slowly lift northeast across the Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday night. This system will push a warm front back northward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, with solid warm sector weather expected by Wednesday afternoon. Showers will be possible through this entire period. Then the cold front will cross the region Wednesday night with more showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm. This system looks a little weaker than the current one but not a whole lot so we may have some of the same concerns. After the system passes, we turn notably cooler Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure tries to build in. A weak clipper could even try to sneak across the area at the end of the week but this is highly uncertain. There is a small potential that this system could even try to bring a little snow, but odds again are quite small at this point. In any case, after all this mild weather, the slightly cooler than normal weather expected for the end of this week will feel pretty cold.