|Dew Point:||71.4°F (21.9°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.29" (1025.6 mb)|
Isolated Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 77 Low: 68
Scattered Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 66
Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 71 Low: 59
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 66 Low: 58
Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 66 Low: 57
Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 68. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
A slight chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 66.
... An upper level disturbance will cross the region this afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach the region Thursday and move southward crossing Thursday night, and likely stalling nearby into Friday. Behind the front, high pressure will build over the region for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper level trough is crossing the area this afternoon and will be followed by a second weaker shortwave this evening. At the surface, a weak pressure trough is present in the lee of the mountains early this afternoon and this will gradually push eastward through the remainder of the day and be east of the region by tonight. A mix of sun and clouds during much of the day has allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. Instability is not as impressive as what we saw on Tuesday, given the additional cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures, and the synoptic lift will be coming through piecemeal and focused further north. That being said, 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE has developed from near the Blue Ridge eastward, and an increase in shear has been noted with effective shear values from 30-35 knots. One of the more noticeable differences when compared to Tuesday is the significantly less DCAPE that is analyzed across the region. Still, these ingredients will support at least an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms today, with damaging winds and large hail continuing to be the primary threats. Initial development is now occurring in the surface trough near or just east of the Appalachians. These showers/thunderstorms should then progress eastward across the metros during the remainder of the afternoon hours and into the evening. A second round of activity is possible, but is less certain during the mid to late evening as the second weaker shortwave moves across.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will then dwindle heading into the overnight, with partly cloudy skies and mainly dry conditions persisting overnight. Patchy fog will be possible towards morning as temperatures bottom out in the middle 60s to middle 70s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A surface cold front will then push southward towards the region Thursday and should be located near the Mason Dixon Line by Thursday evening. At the same time, upper level shortwave energy will traverse the region from west to east. Thus, additional development of scattered showers and thunderstorms seems probable during the afternoon and evening hours. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms appears warranted, and we will also remain moist with mean flow parallel to the front, so heavy rain resulting in isolated incidents of flooding will also be a concern. Highs on Friday will again be hot, in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The front shifts southward Thursday night into Friday, but likely lingers close enough nearby to bring continued chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms through Friday evening. Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler on Friday on the northern side of the front, with highs from 75-85F. A drying trend should commence Friday night as the front sinks further south into southern Virginia. Lows will likely fall into the 50s/60s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front will continue to sag southward through Saturday morning, before high pressure builds in from the north by Saturday afternoon. This will result in showers, with an isolated rumble of thunder, across central VA and maybe southern MD on Saturday morning. The front likely clears our forecast area by Saturday afternoon, taking rain chances with it. However, there is still a bit of uncertainty as far as whether our southern most regions escape the rain. So, keeping low end chance POPs across parts of central VA. Though the front should be far enough south on Sunday to keep the entire area dry, can't completely rule out an isolated shower wandering into southern parts of the forecast area. Temperatures this weekend will be below average, with highs near 80 or so, with significantly reduced humidity as well.
High pressure will push northeast early in the week, resulting in a return southerly to southeasterly flow. This could bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast, with muggier conditions returning. Guidance shows a slight uptick in temperatures as well, but only into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday. Will carry chance POPs Monday and Tuesday with some thunderstorms possible once again.