|Dew Point:||-999.0°F (-572.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the NE at 9.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.56" (899.3 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 25
Sleet then Light Rain LikelyHigh: 36 Low: 34
Partly SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 24
Partly SunnyHigh: 36 Low: 27
Light SnowHigh: 36 Low: 34
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. East wind around 7 mph.
Sleet and freezing rain between 11am and 4pm, then rain likely and a chance of sleet and a chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. South wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Rain likely and a chance of sleet and a chance of freezing rain before 7pm, then freezing rain and rain between 7pm and 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Southwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Partly sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Partly sunny, with a high near 36.
Snow after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Snow before 7am, then snow and sleet and freezing rain between 7am and 1pm, then rain. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
... High pressure will build to our north through tonight. Low pressure will pass through the area later Sunday and Sunday night before high pressure returns for Monday. Stronger low pressure will likely impact the area during the middle portion of next week. High pressure will briefly return late next week before another low possibly impacts the area next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build to our north over New England tonight, and the surface ridge axis will extend into our area, allowing for dry and seasonably cold conditions. Min temps will be in the lower to middle 20s across most locations, but closer to 30 in downtown Washington and Baltimore. Could see some sheltered valleys or rural areas a few degrees colder due to radiational cooling.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track through the Tennessee Valley Sunday and then through our area Sunday night. High pressure will remain wedged into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Sunday evening ahead of the approaching low. This will allow for warm and moist air associated with the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean to overrun the surface cooler air in place. Clouds will increase and so will chances for precipitaiton throughout the day from southwest to northeast. With very dry air in place ahead of the system, there will be enough evaporative cooling when precipitation arrives to cool the low-level temperatures. However, precipitation will not be arriving until the afternoon for most areas, and even late afternoon/early evening across the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas. This combined with a little morning sunshine should be enough for surface temperatures to rise well above freezing near and east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Even for the valleys northwest of Interstate 95 to the Allegheny Highlands, the most likely scenario is for temperatures to remain slightly above freezing once precipitation arrives. Although, confidence is not quite as high across these areas west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains.
For the ridges of the Blue Ridge, Catoctin Mountains and the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands, temperautures should be a bit colder, which means that freezing rain is likely. For now, issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Blue Ridge Mountains and the Potomac Highlands of Virginia and portions of West Virginia in our southwestern CWA. This is where confidence is highest that precipitation will arrive late morning/early afternoon. Farther north across the rest of the ridge tops, precipitation will most likely hold off until late Sunday or Sunday evening. Therefore, did not issue any winter headlines at this time but they may be needed.
Temperatures later Sunday night should hold nearly steady in the valleys and rise some along the ridges. Rain will gradually taper off as the low moves away from the area.
High pressure will build into the area from the north Monday allowing for dry conditions with increasing sunshine. High pressure will remain overhead Monday night, causing seasonably chilly conditions, but dry.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure slides eastward on Tuesday, settling to our north, bringing dry and cool conditions to the region, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. A dry day is expected across the entire region during the day on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, low pressure forms over the low MS river valley Tuesday afternoon and will strengthen and gather ample moisture from the Gulf as it tracks northeastward into Tuesday night. With a fairly strong Canadian high over the northeast and southeast Canada, there should be sub-freezing air at the surface to work with. Over the past several runs of guidance, cooler air seems to be favored aloft as well, especially across northern portions of the CWA. So, the event likely starts as all snow late Tuesday night across the north, with a rain/snow mix as you go further south.
On Wednesday, as the aforementioned low pushes north, warm advection aloft will begin to change precipitation to more of a wintry mix throughout the day. General thinking is that northern areas stay all snow for much of the day, as cold air tends to linger in our northern areas. Thinking that warm advection wins out by the evening, transitioning precipitation to a wintry mix across the north, with rain taking over southern areas. QPF will likely approach or exceed an inch for a bulk of the area through Wednesday night, as suggested by recent runs of the EPS, as well as recent runs of the deterministic GFS and Euro. Depending on the strength and stubbornness of the cold air at the surface, those climatologically favored locations near and west of the Blue Ridge could see an extended period of wintry precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night, but will continue to monitor over the next few days.
A cold rain takes over Wednesday night into Thursday morning for much of the area, while surface temperatures along the Mason-Dixon line struggle to get above freezing, so could see some freezing rain there through Thursday morning. All precipitation appears to be out of here by Thursday afternoon though, as the low departs to the northeast.
Models diverge a bit on what happens on Friday. High pressure will be building in from the north, as another area of low pressure slides by to our south. At this point, it is too early to know exactly where this will go, or if it even forms. So, will leave chance for rain/snow, as temperatures could be marginally supportive for some wintry precipitation. However, the possibility does exist that we stay completely dry. So, lots of uncertainty at this point.