... A cold front will cross the area this afternoon and early evening. Sprawling Canadian high pressure will dominate in its wake through the middle portion of the work week. This high will shift offshore Wednesday night as a frontal boundary lingers near the Mid Atlantic to finish out the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure over the Great Lakes early this morning is stretching a cold front on the doorstep of the Ohio Valley, as a stationary boundary is kinked along the Mid Atlantic seaboard. Skies overhead are partly cloudy with the bulk of shower activity north of the Mason Dixon Line. Temperatures remain quite mild this morning, hovering in the middle 60s over our mountain zones, with low to middle 70s being observed elsewhere. Dewpoints in the low to middle 60s continue to give that summer-like feel in the air.
The aforementioned cold front will track eastward through the Ohio Valley this morning, crossing into the CWA this afternoon through early this evening. Guidance in fairly good agreement of any shower/storm activity associated with its passage to be mainly focused along and east of the Blue Ridge mountains. This is where the best CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) and shear resides, but overall instability will be down compared to the past couple of days. The threat for a few strong to marginally severe storms does exist east of the Blue Ridge into the metro areas, including southern MD. The primary threat with any strong storm that develops along the front will be locally damaging winds and hail. Temperatures are expected to soar well into the 80s, but likely a degree or two cooler than Sunday given increased cloud cover associated with front and 850 temps running a touch cooler as well.
Precipitation will push off to the south and east shortly after sunset this evening, as drier air filters in behind the frontal passage. This will allow for decreasing clouds, lower humidity, and cooler temperatures in the 50s overnight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Sprawling Canadian high pressure will build down of the Mid Atlantic from the Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds on Tuesday will yield much cooler temperatures in the low to middle 70s area wide, moderating slightly on Wednesday but still holding in the 70s. The strong and complex system impacting the southern/central Plains the next couple of days will lift northward into the upper Midwest late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will lift a warm front toward our region Wednesday night as the high shifts off the coast. This will likely bring an increase in cloud cover Wednesday night, as well as increasing shower chances by early Thursday morning, mainly west of the Blue Ridge.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level high pressure system will be situated over the southeastern US through Sunday. There is good agreement that this upper level high will be in place over SE US but their remains uncertainty on how far south the high will settle. This means that their could be the potential for pop up showers and thunderstorms through Sunday depending on the exact location of the high. These storms/showers would be kicked off by shortwaves moving through the system. The presence of this high means that temperatures will trend upwards through this week with temps potentially hitting the 90 degree mark by this weekend. We will have to continue to monitor how this setup progresses to determine the potential for any showers and thunderstorms later this week.