|Dew Point:||16.0°F (-8.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSE at 13.0 MPH Gusting to 24.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||21°F (-6°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.74" (905.4 mb)|
Mostly ClearLow: 27
Partly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 27
Partly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 29
Light RainHigh: 42 Low: 37
Heavy Rain then Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 45 Low: 33
Mostly clear, with a low around 27. West wind 12 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Partly sunny, with a high near 37. West wind 7 to 12 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southwest wind around 10 mph.
Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Southeast wind around 9 mph.
Rain and freezing rain likely after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Rain before 7am, then rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Rain showers likely before 7pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
...High pressure will build over the region through Thursday night. A large area of low pressure will impact the area at the end of the week bringing widespread rain and potential for flooding.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very cold again tonight under clear skies this evening. Went with a persistence forecast with lows in the single digits in the southwest where a good snowpack still remains. Shenandoah Regional Airport dropped to -2F this morning. Overnight, guidance show high clouds increasing from the west which may allow temperatures to rise a bit toward dawn.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High clouds during the morning, turning sunnier in the afternoon. An upper level disturbance will move across Michigan into the eastern Great Lks Thu morning. Warm air advection could result in some very light precip late Wed night into Thu morning. Moisture is very limited and forcing is weak, so only a trace to a couple of hundredths of an inch expected. While temp profiles favor snow, moisture is shallow below -10C which may favor more fzdz than snow. However, model soundings do not show any saturation at the sfc. Any precip should end by 15Z Thu if not sooner.
Dry Thu and Thu night. Next chance of precip with potent srn stream system will start moving into our southwest after 12Z Fri and spread through the rest of the CWA Fri afternoon. Any threat for fzra would be very short lived with little or no impact as temperatures rise above freezing. Warm air moving over residual snow cover may result in areas of fog.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Friday, a strong cutoff upper low will eject east out of Texas and move across the southeast U.S. throughout the day. The associated surface low will follow a similar track, and precipitation associated with the warm front will arrive in our region Friday evening. A strong area of high pressure over the northeast will also be moving out to sea at this time, so there could potentially be some lingering cold air at the onset of this system, thus allowing for a very small chance for freezing rain at the onset, primarily west of the blue Ridge. However, given the trend for precipitation to arrive later in the day Friday, this seems very low probability at this point, with surface air likely too warm by the time precipitation arrives. Instead, what will likely occur is a cold, heavy rain Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday morning. Recent trends in guidance suggest that central VA into central/southern MD are highlighted for the most significant risk for heavy rain. Besides potentially cracking the annual rainfall record at DCA, this could result in a flood risk, especially in central VA where significant snow fell Sunday. In addition, there might be some limited low level instability, and shear will be quite high, so there may even be a modest severe weather risk. With the strong southerly flow, temperatures likely warm into the 50s, perhaps even the 60s at some point, particularly east of I-95.
On Saturday, the upper low will be moving off the east coast on Saturday. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding how close this system comes to us. Some guidance suggests that it will pass far enough south for rainfall to end early Saturday, but other guidance suggests it stays far enough north to bring a continued chance for showers into Sunday. Keeping chance POPs through Sunday morning due to this uncertainty. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Sunday afternoon through early next week look to dry out, as a cold area of high pressure will build into the region. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will drop into the mid to upper 40s.