|Dew Point:||32.0°F (0.0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||27.13" (918.6 mb)|
Partly CloudyLow: 60
Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 72 Low: 65
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 63
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 73 Low: 64
Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly SunnyHigh: 79 Low: 68
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southeast wind around 6 mph.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. West wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Mostly clear, with a low around 68.
... High pressure will move offshore Saturday and Saturday night as a warm front passes from southwest to northeast. A weak cold front will approach from the north and linger nearby Sunday and Monday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle portion of next week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over much of the eastern United States.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A weak quasi-stationary boundary remains to the southwest of Charlottesville- Staunton, with little movement anticipated overnight. Aloft, however, warm advection will commence, which will allow for mid and upper- level clouds to thicken. Since dewpoints will remain relatively low (in the 50s), conditions will remain comfortable, but temperatures likely won't drop to dewpoint levels.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move offshore Saturday through Saturday night and a return southerly flow will bring more warm and humid conditions. The heat and humidity will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially northwest of Interstate 95, with the best chance being near and west of the Blue Ridge During the afternoon and evening hours. Higher instability along with a pressure trough and moderate shear may be enough to cause an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains where the higher instability will be located.
For Saturday night through Sunday night, an upper-level high will remain to our south with the Polar Jet remaining well to our north. Therefore, a nearly zonal flow will setup over our area during this time. High pressure will sprawled across the southeastern CONUS into the Atlantic, allowing for warm and humid conditions. The heat and humidity will lead to an unstable atmosphere, and with shortwave energy in the zonal flow aloft this will bring the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Timing these upper-level disturbances is difficult this far out, so confidence in exact timing and location of storms is low. As of now, it appears that the best chance for thunderstorms will be Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across northern and central areas. This is when most guidance shows stronger shortwave energy passing through, and even a weak cold front dropping into our area in response to a stronger system moving through eastern Canada. Some storms may be strong to locally severe due to higher amounts of instability along with moderate shear profiles, but confidence remains low.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The large scale pattern remains fairly constant through much of the upcoming week. A subtropical ridge will be positioned over the southeastern CONUS, perhaps becoming flattened/suppressed by the end of the week. Lower heights will be located near Hudson Bay and the Intermountain west. That means the flow will be more zonal locally and fronts will have trouble making much southward progress.
For Monday, the front will be near or south of the area, with a low chance of showers and storms and slightly cooler (but still above normal. The front will lift back to the north Tuesday into Tuesday night, so there could be a few showers and storms. As low pressure moves northeast into Canada Wednesday and the Bermuda high strengthens, we'll be solidly in the warm sector and convection should be more suppressed. This will likely be the hottest day of the week with temperatures likely reaching the 90s in many areas.
The front will slide southeast Thursday into Friday in response to a series of stronger shortwave troughs crossing Canada. This will bring another opportunity for showers and storms, although the timing and coverage is rather uncertain at this range, so PoPs in the forecast remain low. Temperatures will trend down a bit, though remaining near seasonable normals.